So is it completely crazy for a team of the Chargersin Here is your first Forum Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:28 am
by smithlucky • 168 Posts
caliber to be just 7-6 and have only a 47 percent chance, per FPI, to reach the playoffs? The 2017 Chargers are one Damian Jones Jersey of 16 teams since 2008 with an FPI rating between 5 and 6 following Week 14, and among those, they are one of only two to have a 7-6 record. (The 2008 Eagles, a team with a similar profile, was 7-5-1 at this stage.) Overall, those 16 teams averaged more than nine wins at this point in the season. For what it's worth: Only one team in that span with an FPI over 6 has had only seven wins at this point in the season and none has had fewer. In other words: The circumstance L.A. finds itself in is not totally crazy but certainly unusual.
FPI evaluates team strength going forward, but Kevin Long Womens Jersey what about how the Chargers have actually played over their 13 games this year? For that we can use efficiency, our measure of expected points added per play that is downweighted for garbage time, adjusts for season averages and places teams on a 0-100 scale. The Chargers rank ninth this season with an efficiency of 59.45. http://www.broncosofficialfootball.com/Matt_Paradis_Jersey_Broncos There have been 28 teams through Week 14 with an efficiency score within Brooks Robinson Jersey two points of that number through 14 weeks since 2008, and seven of them had only seven wins (including one with a tie).
None of those teams has had a worse record than 7-6. The group averaged a little more than eight wins. So what happened to put the 2017 Chargers in this situation?
Fans might be quick to point out the two late-game Younghoe Koo kicks from the first two weeks of the season. In Week 1, Koo kicked what would have been the game-tying field goal against the Broncos in the final seconds, but Denver called a timeout first, and his second kick was blocked. The following week, Koo missed what would have been a go-ahead field goal with nine seconds left against the Dolphins.
Before Koo's attempt against the Broncos, Los Angeles had a 38 percent chance to win; against the Dolphins, the missed kick brought their chances of winning from 80 percent to zero. That second kick, especially, is both significant and relatively unlucky.
But have the Chargers been unlucky overall this year? It's hard to say -- plenty of teams miss plenty of field goals, and plenty of fluky occurrences happen across the league on a weekly basis -- but the answer is: probably at least a little bit. Given the level at which they've played this season, the Chargers probably ought to have a better record than they do. So if L.A. reaches the playoffs, the team will likely be the biggest AFC threat to the conference's two powerhouses, the Patriots and Steelers. But the Chargers still have to get there first. For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.
We've reached college football bowl season, and we're one step closer to the 2018 NFL draft. In fact, the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is a month away, on Jan. 15. In this edition of my Big Board for next year's draft, I've added the Heisman Trophy winner for the first time, plus a defender from the SEC who has really had a strong season. There are a few http://www.detroitlions.us.com/WOMENS-MATTHEW-STAFFORD-JERSEY.html other changes from 1 to 25, too.
A reminder about my Big Board: I'm projecting to the NFL. This is about much more than stats. My projections are based on size, athletic ability, statistics and what I hear from people around the league. Speaking of size, what's listed here is provided by the schools. These numbers could vary greatly when players show up at the NFL combine. True height and weight matter a lot for almost every position. Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore for the 2017 season.
Barkley is a lights-out athlete with tremendous balance, a great lower body and quick feet. He had 1,728 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns in the regular season, and he rushed for 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns last season and 1,076 yards as a freshman. Barkley (5-foot-11, 230 pounds) also will help in the passing game. He had 47 catches this season after having 48 in his first two seasons at Penn State combined. I http://www.lionsshopnfl.com/Authentic-Ricky-Wagner-Jersey think he'll run under a 4.4 40-yard dash and test well at the combine. Barkley could be a top-five pick in 2018, and he's going to get Elandon Roberts Womens Jersey an elite grade from me.