Brady, is pretty decenin Here is your first Forum Tue Jul 01, 2014 10:04 am
by lluggg581 • 5 Posts
Week 11 NFL picks against the spread for the Sun
Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning throws a pass against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter of an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 23, 2013, in Denver.
By Case Keefer (contact)
The gap between the NFL game with the largest betting handle and the one with the lowest this weekend will stretch as far as the distance from one end of the Strip to the other.
Sun's NFL betting game of week 11 Which team is the best bet in the primetime games of week 11? New Orleans 3 33.1% Kansas City +8 22.5% New England +3 15.0% Denver 8 13.2% San Francisco +3 8.8% Carolina 3 7.5%
This poll is closed, see Full Results
Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.
Past week's pick columns Week 10 Week 9 Week 8 Week 7 Week 6 Week 5 Week 4 Week 3 Week 2 Week 1
Related coverage College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of week 11 NBA by the Las Vegas odds: Locking in 8 season win total bets NFL by the Vegas odds: Sports book preview of the NFC NFL by the Vegas odds: Sports book preview of the AFC The Weekly has you covered on betting the NFL Talking Points blog Sports section
This is about the point of the season where the betting public becomes enamored with the marquee matchups to the point of totally neglecting the lesser affairs.
All of them used half of their weekly picks, available at the bottom of the page, to make selections in each of the three games pitting teams ranking in the top 10 of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. The nationally televised trio of San Francisco plus 3 at New Orleans, Kansas City plus 8 at Denver and New England plus 3 at Carolina will get the same treatment at betting windows.
Therefore, let's switch up the process and look at all six sides through a Las Vegas prism this week before jumping into the picks.
The case for San Francisco plus 3: The 49ers have the Saints' number. Since coach Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco, his team has beaten and covered in both meetings against New Orleans, including in the NFC Divisional Playoff round two years ago.
The characteristics are there for a repeat, as the biggest mismatch here is San Francisco's rushing offense sixth according to DVOA against New Orleans' rushing defense 30th in DVOA. The 49ers are coming off of a disappointing 10 9 setback as 6 point favorites against the Panthers, but Harbaugh is 7 3 against the spread after a loss in the regular season.
Sports books will need San Francisco, as bookmakers are already reporting 3 out of every 4 tickets coming in on New Orleans. It always feels better siding with the house over the public.
The case for New Orleans minus 3: There's a reason the Saints are the more popular bet, though. They looked outstanding in destroying the Cowboys 49 17 as 6 point favorites on Sunday Night Football last week.
And that compliment extends to any time they're playing in the Superdome, where they've gone undefeated straight up and against the spread this season. Under coach Sean Payton who missed all of last season serving a Bountygate suspension New Orleans has astoundingly won and covered in its past 14 home games.
The Saints' defensive turnaround has been most visible in the secondary, as they rank fifth in DVOA against the pass. That should spell problems for 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in his past three games. Kaepernick could also be without his favorite target, Vernon Davis, who's recovering from a concussion.
The case for Kansas City plus 8: An opportunity to get more than a touchdown with the NFL's last standing undefeated team may never again materialize. The Chiefs have treated bettors so well, too, supplementing their 9 0 straight up record with a 6 3 tally against the spread.
Kansas City has already beaten sports books' preseason win total by two games. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is unofficially the patron saint of bye weeks, going 14 1 straight up and 11 4 against the spread off of rest in his career.
He's had 13 days to cook up ways for the league's second best passing defense, according to DVOA, to slow its best passing offense. Kansas City's All Pros on defense lineman Dontari Poe, linebacker Justin Houston and safety Eric Berry aren't hobbled by a sprained ankle like Denver quarterback Peyton Manning.
The case for Denver minus 8: No stinkin' sore ankle is going to slow the man on the verge of his fifth career MVP award. An entire missed season in 2011 obscures the reputation Manning once held as one of the most durable players Logan Thomas Cardinals Jersey in the NFL.
He's fought through more than a couple nagging injuries en route to a lifetime 132 112 9 record against the spread. That includes a 7 3 mark versus the number when playing the Chiefs, a team Manning has beaten in nine of 10 meetings.
Whereas Kansas City has dilly dallied past opponents in the past month, getting out gained in three of four games, Denver has obliterated them. The Broncos have the NFL's best scoring differential at plus 133.
The case for New England plus 3: The Patriots put on one of the most efficient offensive performances of the year their last time out, a 55 31 victory over the Steelers as 5.5 point favorites.
There's reason to believe it wasn't an aberration, what with Rob Gronkowski getting healthier, Aaron Dobson getting more mature and Stevan Ridley getting more careful. The guy directing it all, quarterback Tom Brady, is pretty decent, too especially in spots like these.
Brady is 29 13 against the spread as an underdog in his career and 14 6 versus the number on Monday Night Football. Although Carolina coach Ron Rivera has reversed his team's fortunes by transforming the defense into what DVOA rates the league's best and wisely attacking more aggressively, he's still at a major coaching disadvantage. And New England coach Bill Belichick even had an extra week to prepare.
The case for Carolina minus 3: Belichick benefiting from the bye week might be overblown, as the man commonly accepted as the NFL's best coach is only 8 12 against the spread in the situation.